Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 143,208
2 Rhode Island 141,958
3 South Dakota 139,764
4 Utah 125,589
5 Tennessee 123,348
6 Arizona 119,935
7 Iowa 117,071
8 Wisconsin 115,009
9 Nebraska 114,936
10 South Carolina 114,318
11 Oklahoma 113,937
12 New Jersey 113,796
13 Arkansas 112,261
14 Alabama 110,149
15 Delaware 109,890
16 Indiana 109,739
17 Illinois 108,121
18 Kansas 107,704
19 New York 107,108
20 Florida 106,714
21 Idaho 106,309
22 Mississippi 105,744
23 Minnesota 105,418
24 Nevada 104,065
25 Montana 103,650
26 Georgia 102,754
27 Wyoming 102,078
28 Kentucky 101,882
29 Massachusetts 101,855
30 Texas 101,025
31 Louisiana 99,990
32 Missouri 99,219
33 Michigan 97,672
34 Connecticut 96,759
35 New Mexico 95,692
36 California 95,380
37 North Carolina 95,048
38 Alaska 94,180
39 Ohio 93,325
40 Pennsylvania 92,999
41 Colorado 92,847
42 West Virginia 88,423
43 Virginia 78,518
44 Maryland 75,458
45 New Hampshire 71,835
46 District of Columbia 68,785
47 Washington 55,756
48 Puerto Rico 53,314
49 Maine 48,887
50 Oregon 46,395
51 Vermont 38,274
52 Hawaii 24,140

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Alabama 488
2 Colorado 189
3 Minnesota 176
4 South Carolina 170
5 Maine 166
6 West Virginia 156
7 Oregon 154
8 Delaware 146
9 Florida 145
10 Washington 144
11 Indiana 137
12 Michigan 119
13 Illinois 117
14 Pennsylvania 111
15 Massachusetts 103
16 North Dakota 99
17 New York 97
18 Utah 93
19 New Hampshire 91
20 Kentucky 85
21 Vermont 84
22 Arizona 82
23 Hawaii 81
24 Puerto Rico 81
25 Montana 77
26 Ohio 72
27 Maryland 69
28 Wisconsin 69
29 Georgia 67
30 District of Columbia 66
31 Arkansas 60
32 Missouri 60
33 Iowa 57
34 Virginia 57
35 North Carolina 52
36 Alaska 51
37 Rhode Island 48
38 Texas 48
39 Wyoming 47
40 New Jersey 46
41 Nevada 42
42 Kansas 40
43 Connecticut 34
44 New Mexico 34
45 Tennessee 32
46 Idaho 31
47 California 30
48 Louisiana 30
49 Mississippi 22
50 South Dakota 16
51 Nebraska 15
52 Oklahoma 12

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,922
2 New York 2,694
3 Massachusetts 2,575
4 Rhode Island 2,548
5 Mississippi 2,437
6 Arizona 2,399
7 Connecticut 2,292
8 Louisiana 2,253
9 Alabama 2,251
10 South Dakota 2,250
11 Pennsylvania 2,098
12 North Dakota 2,012
13 Indiana 2,002
14 Michigan 1,980
15 New Mexico 1,962
16 Illinois 1,956
17 Arkansas 1,919
18 Iowa 1,903
19 South Carolina 1,874
20 Georgia 1,870
21 Nevada 1,795
22 Tennessee 1,788
23 Texas 1,762
24 Kansas 1,743
25 Oklahoma 1,738
26 Delaware 1,695
27 Florida 1,679
28 Ohio 1,670
29 California 1,586
30 District of Columbia 1,586
31 West Virginia 1,540
32 Missouri 1,530
33 Kentucky 1,528
34 Montana 1,495
35 Maryland 1,476
36 Wisconsin 1,324
37 Minnesota 1,310
38 Virginia 1,290
39 Wyoming 1,230
40 Nebraska 1,229
41 North Carolina 1,228
42 Idaho 1,158
43 Colorado 1,144
44 New Hampshire 979
45 Puerto Rico 762
46 Washington 743
47 Utah 704
48 Oregon 616
49 Maine 596
50 Alaska 459
51 Vermont 403
52 Hawaii 345

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Kentucky 7
2 Michigan 4
3 Illinois 3
4 Pennsylvania 3
5 Alabama 2
6 District of Columbia 2
7 Florida 2
8 New Jersey 2
9 Ohio 2
10 Puerto Rico 2
11 South Carolina 2
12 Virginia 2
13 Arizona 1
14 Arkansas 1
15 Colorado 1
16 Delaware 1
17 Georgia 1
18 Indiana 1
19 Maryland 1
20 Massachusetts 1
21 Minnesota 1
22 New Hampshire 1
23 New York 1
24 Oregon 1
25 Texas 1
26 West Virginia 1
27 Alaska 0
28 California 0
29 Connecticut 0
30 Hawaii 0
31 Idaho 0
32 Iowa 0
33 Kansas 0
34 Louisiana 0
35 Maine 0
36 Mississippi 0
37 Missouri 0
38 Montana 0
39 Nevada 0
40 New Mexico 0
41 North Carolina 0
42 North Dakota 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Rhode Island 0
45 South Dakota 0
46 Tennessee 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 Wisconsin 0
51 Wyoming 0
52 Nebraska -1

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 375,447 1 99
Crowley Colorado 362,646 2 99
Bent Colorado 275,417 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,170 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 246,007 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 142,292 190 93
Richland South Carolina 112,633 981 68
York South Carolina 111,784 1014 67
Orange California 85,415 2231 28
Pierce Washington 58,303 2848 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,804 5 99
Orange California 1,584 1820 42
York South Carolina 1,363 2079 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,357 2090 33
Richland South Carolina 1,349 2104 33
Pierce Washington 738 2739 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons